Montana Polling
Summary
The electorate is deeply divided and unsettled, with Democrats driving pessimism about the state’s direction. Both partisan candidates are largely unknown and lack firm support at this time. Seth Bodnar stands out with stronger favorability, growing recognition, and a narrow lead, benefiting from voters’ clear openness—especially among Democrats—to an independent, nontraditional candidate.
Key Findings
Montanans are deeply divided in their outlook.
Just 40% of likely voters overall feel the state is headed in the right direction, and 46% say it is off on the wrong track, which is largely unchanged from January. This negativity is driven almost entirely by Democratic voters, 85% of whom are unhappy with the direction of the state. Republican voters largely feel optimistic (66% right direction).
Voters are unfamiliar with and uncommitted to the partisan candidates.
Neither Democrat Reilly Neill nor Republican Kurt Alme are well-known. Three-quarters (77%) of likely voters have low or no familiarity with Neill; 74% with Alme. Neill enjoys somewhat better recognition among likely Democratic primary voters, but only marginally (66% unfamiliar) and favorability is soft among those who do know her (26% favorable, 8% unfavorable).
Likely Republican primary voters do not have any better understanding of Alme than voters overall – 79% are unfamiliar and just 13% feel favorably (8% unfavorable).
This lack of familiarity with the partisan candidates perhaps explains the high level of uncertainty for the June primaries. Both likely Democratic and Republican primary voters are largely unsure of who they plan to vote for in June (69% and 71% unsure, respectively). A fifth of Democratic primary voters say they’d vote for Neill, but most of that support is soft (6% certain to vote for Neill, 14% undecided but lean towards Neill).
Seth Bodnar outpaces others in recognition and favorability.
Seth Bodnar, not well known in January, is slowly improving his name ID throughout the state (from 70% unfamiliar in January to 60% unfamiliar in March). He sits at a comfortable +9 net favorability rating with likely voters overall (compared to +1 for Neill and -9 for Alme). Bodnar’s favorability is driven by Democratic voters, half of whom feel favorably towards him (+40 net). Independents also have positive opinions of Bodnar (+19 net).
Democratic voters prioritize electability over party loyalty.
They are open to a non-Democratic candidate (32% prefer the candidate who is most likely to defeat the Republican candidate over a Democratic candidate who best represents Democratic values, and 49% say both are equally important).
In a hypothetical election between Republican Kurt Alme and an opponent, one-in-five Democratic voters say they would rather vote for an independent candidate. 62% would prefer a Democratic candidate, but only 32% feel strongly, with 50% who only slightly prefer a Democratic candidate or actively prefer an independent.
Majorities (81%) also find it appealing when a candidate is “not beholden to party bosses, ”including 88% of Democratic voters, compared to 68% of Democratic voters who like a candidate that identifies as strongly liberal. That 20-point gap among Democrats matters – though Democratic voters may prefer to see a Democrat on the ticket, they are hungry for a candidate with a moderate approach and open to an independent who can win.
Bodnar holds a slight edge over Alme.
In a two-way race, Bodnar holds a narrow lead (39%) over Alme (36%). A quarter are undecided. After learning more about the candidates, 47% would vote for Bodnar, continuing to slightly outpace support for Alme (45%). Strong majorities of Democratic and independent voters support Bodnar, while Alme’s support is concentrated mainly among Republican voters.
High alignment with key pieces of Bodnar’s bio and platform.
Bodnar’s background and bio are appealing to a strong majority of likely voters (79%), whereas just 49% of voters resonate with Alme’s bio1 . Nine-in-ten Democratic voters appreciate Bodnar’s bio.
In blinded attribute-testing, key qualities associated with Bodnar test well – “not beholden to party bosses” is appealing to 81%, “is not a career politician” to 69%, and “has military service experience” to 60%. Alme’s key selling point right now – that he is endorsed by Donald Trump – lacks broad appeal (42% appealing, 44% unappealing).
Strong majorities resonate with Bodnar’s fight to protect Social Security and Medicare (82% appealing) and bring down costs (76% appealing). This is true across party lines, even among Republican voters.
Alme’s path to the ballot leaves him vulnerable.
Most (79%) find Senator Daines’ and Alme’s filing antics concerning 2 , including 69% of Republicans, 85% of independents, and 94% of Democrats. Even a majority of initial Alme supporters (57%) express concern.
A survey of 600 Likely 2026 Voters in Montana (Margin of Error: ±4.0)
Including oversamples of 100 each Dem and Rep Primary Voters
March 28-April 1, 2026
Landscape
In general, would you say things in Montana are heading in the right direction or are things off on the wrong track?
| March | Jan | |
|---|---|---|
| Right direction | 40% | 39% |
| Wrong track | 46% | 47% |
| DK/REF | 14% | 15% |
Now, I’m going to read you a list of some public figures, institutions, and other things you may have heard of, and I’d like you to tell me whether you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable opinion of each one. If you don’t recognize the name or if you recognize the name but do not have an opinion, please say so and we will move to the next name. Here is the first one…
| Total fav | Total unfav | Very favorable | Somewhat favorable | Somewhat unfavorable | Very unfavorable | Recognize, no opinion | Don't recognize | DK/REF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | 51% | 48% | 34% | 17% | 5% | 43% | 1% | – | * |
| Seth Bodnar | 24% | 15% | 8 | 17 | 10 | 5 | 11 | 43 | 6 |
| Jan | 21% | 10% | 7 | 14 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 46 | 7 |
| Reilly Neill | 12% | 11% | 5 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 7 | 63 | 7 |
| Kurt Alme | 9% | 18% | 5 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 7 | 59 | 7 |
Candidate Attributes
Now I’d like to understand how appealing or unappealing different qualities are when you think about candidates for public office. For each of the following, please indicate whether you find the quality to be very appealing, somewhat appealing, you have no opinion, somewhat unappealing, or very unappealing.
| Total appeal | Total unappeal | Very appealing | Somewhat appealing | No opinion | Somewhat unappealing | Very unappealing | DK/REF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Focuses on economic issues like jobs and inflation | 95% | 2% | 66 | 29 | 3 | 1 | 1 | * |
| Not beholden to party bosses | 81% | 5% | 58 | 22 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
| Identifies strongly as conservative (Reps) / liberal (Dems) | 79% | 7% | 43 | 36 | 12 | 6 | 1 | 2 |
| Is not a career politician | 69% | 7% | 40 | 29 | 22 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
| Focuses on border security and immigration | 62% | 30% | 50 | 12 | 6 | 18 | 12 | 2 |
| Has military service experience | 60% | 6% | 21 | 39 | 33 | 4 | 1 | 1 |
| Endorsed by Donald Trump | 42% | 44% | 23 | 20 | 13 | 2 | 42 | * |
Primaries
(If likely Dem primary voter, n207) Moving on, if the Democratic primary election for U.S. Senate were held today, would you vote for Reilly Neill, Alani Bankhead, Michael Black Wolf, Michael Hummert, or Christopher Kehoe?
| Reilly Neill | 20% |
| Alani Bankhead | 4% |
| Michael Black Wolf | 6% |
| Michael Hummert | – |
| Christopher Kehoe | 1% |
| Reilly Neill | 6% |
| Undecided, but lean towards Reilly Neill | 14% |
| Alani Bankhead | 2% |
| Undecided, but lean towards Alani Bankhead | 2% |
| Michael Black Wolf | 3% |
| Undecided, but lean towards Michael Black Wolf | 3% |
| Michael Hummert | – |
| Undecided, but lean towards Michael Hummert | – |
| Christopher Kehoe | – |
| Undecided, but lean towards Christopher Kehoe | 1% |
| DK/REF | 69% |
(If likely Rep primary voter, n347) Moving on, if the Republican primary election for U.S. Senate were held today, would you vote for Kurt Alme, Lee Calhoun, or Charles A. Walking Child?
| Kurt Alme | 18% |
| Lee Calhoun | 7% |
| Charles A. Walking Child | 4% |
| Kurt Alme | 12% |
| Undecided, but lean towards Kurt Alme | 6% |
| Lee Calhoun | 1% |
| Undecided, but lean towards Lee Calhoun | 6% |
| Charles A. Walking Child | 2% |
| Undecided, but lean towards Charles A. Walking Child | 2% |
| DK/REF | 71% |
General Election
(If self-identified Democrat, n=210) If the general election for the U.S. Senate in Montana was between Republican Kurt Alme and an opponent, would you rather vote for a Democratic opponent or an Independent opponent?
| Total Democratic opponent | 62% |
| Total Independent opponent | 20% |
| Definitely a Democratic opponent | 32% |
| Probably a Democratic opponent | 30% |
| Probably an Independent opponent | 15% |
| Definitely an Independent opponent | 5% |
| Neither | 1% |
| DK/REF | 17% |
(If self-identified Democrat, n=210) In the upcoming U.S. Senate race in Montana, which is more important to you as a Democratic voter — voting for the Democratic candidate who best represents Democratic values or the candidate most likely to defeat the Republican candidate?
| March | Jan | |
|---|---|---|
| Voting for the Democratic candidate who best represents Democratic values | 18% | 18% |
| Voting for the candidate most likely to defeat the Republican candidate | 32% | 31% |
| Both are equally important | 49% | 50% |
| DK/REF | 2% | 1% |
In January, question wording referred to Senator Daines instead of a generic Republican candidate.
Initial Vote (Candidate Scenarios)
If the election for U.S. Senate were held today and the candidates were Independent Seth Bodnar and Republican Kurt Alme, for whom would you vote?
| Seth Bodnar | 39% |
| Kurt Alme | 36% |
| Independent Seth Bodnar | 32% |
| Undecided, but lean towards Independent Seth Bodnar | 8% |
| Republican Kurt Alme | 25% |
| Undecided, but lean towards Republican Kurt Alme | 11% |
| DK/REF | 25% |
If the election for U.S. Senate were held today and the candidates were Independent Seth Bodnar, Republican Kurt Alme, and Libertarian Kyle Austin, for whom would you vote?
| Seth Bodnar | 40% |
| Kurt Alme | 38% |
| Kyle Austin | 5% |
| Independent Seth Bodnar | 27% |
| Undecided, but lean towards Independent Seth Bodnar | 14% |
| Republican Kurt Alme | 30% |
| Undecided, but lean towards Republican Kurt Alme | 8% |
| Libertarian Kyle Austin | 2% |
| Undecided, but lean towards Libertarian Kyle Austin | 3% |
| DK/REF | 17% |
If the election for U.S. Senate were held today and the candidates were Independent Seth Bodnar, Republican Kurt Alme, Democrat Reilly Neill, and Libertarian Kyle Austin, for whom would you vote?
| Seth Bodnar | 23% |
| Kurt Alme | 42% |
| Reilly Neill | 15% |
| Kyle Austin | 4% |
| Independent Seth Bodnar | 14% |
| Undecided, but lean towards Independent Seth Bodnar | 10% |
| Republican Kurt Alme | 31% |
| Undecided, but lean towards Republican Kurt Alme | 11% |
| Democrat Reilly Neill | 9% |
| Undecided, but lean towards Democrat Reilly Neill | 6% |
| Libertarian Kyle Austin | 2% |
| Undecided, but lean towards Libertarian Kyle Austin | 2% |
| DK/REF | 15% |
Bios
Next, here are some short statements about the potential candidates running for Senate in Montana. After each one, please indicate whether you find the information to be very appealing, somewhat appealing, not very appealing, or not at all appealing. — Bodnar bio
Seth Bodnar is an independent, the former president of the University of Montana, a West Point graduate who finished first in his class, a Rhodes Scholar, a Green Beret and veteran of the 101st Airborne Division who served in Iraq, a lieutenant colonel in the Montana National Guard, and a former General Electric executive. Bodnar will bring accountability and real solutions to Washington by lowering costs, ending political culture wars, protecting public lands, and putting Montana families and American competitiveness first.
| Total appealing | 79% |
| Total not | 15% |
| Very appealing | 45% |
| Somewhat appealing | 34% |
| Not very appealing | 6% |
| Not at all appealing | 9% |
| DK/REF | 5% |
Candidate bio — Kurt Alme
Kurt Alme is a Republican, a native Montanan from Great Falls, a Harvard Law School graduate, President Trump's twice-appointed U.S. Attorney for Montana, Governor Gianforte's former budget director, and the former president of the Yellowstone Boys and Girls Ranch Foundation serving at-risk youth. Alme has been endorsed by President Trump and is running to fight for border security, energy production, and Montana's farmers and ranchers.
| Total appealing | 49% |
| Total not | 49% |
| Very appealing | 32% |
| Somewhat appealing | 17% |
| Not very appealing | 13% |
| Not at all appealing | 35% |
| DK/REF | 2% |
Informed Vote
Now that you have more information, if the election for U.S. Senate were held today and the candidates were Independent Seth Bodnar and Republican Kurt Alme, for whom would you vote?
| Seth Bodnar | 47% |
| Kurt Alme | 45% |
| Independent Seth Bodnar | 36% |
| Undecided, but lean towards Independent Seth Bodnar | 11% |
| Republican Kurt Alme | 33% |
| Undecided, but lean towards Republican Kurt Alme | 11% |
| DK/REF | 9% |
Messages — ROTATE BODNAR POSITIVES
Here are some short statements that people have made in support of Seth Bodnar. After each one, please indicate whether you find the information to be very appealing, somewhat appealing, not very appealing, or not at all appealing. — Social Security
Seth Bodnar is standing up for hardworking families and seniors by fighting to protect Social Security and Medicare so people can count on the benefits they've earned.
| March | Jan | |
|---|---|---|
| Total appealing | 82% | 75% |
| Total not | 13% | 21% |
| Very appealing | 45% | 45% |
| Somewhat appealing | 37% | 30% |
| Not very appealing | 4% | 9% |
| Not at all appealing | 8% | 12% |
| DK/REF | 5% | 4% |
Bodnar message — Costs
Seth Bodnar is fighting to bring down costs and manage inflation to lower everyday prices and make life more affordable for Montanans.
| March | Jan | |
|---|---|---|
| Total appealing | 76% | 78% |
| Total not | 18% | 18% |
| Very appealing | 49% | 42% |
| Somewhat appealing | 27% | 37% |
| Not very appealing | 11% | 5% |
| Not at all appealing | 8% | 13% |
| DK/REF | 5% | 3% |
Bodnar message — Immigration
Seth Bodnar believes we need strong borders and enforcement of our immigration policies – but done without trampling on the individual liberties of American citizens.
| Total appealing | 75% |
| Total not | 21% |
| Very appealing | 29% |
| Somewhat appealing | 45% |
| Not very appealing | 10% |
| Not at all appealing | 11% |
| DK/REF | 4% |
Bodnar message — Nonpartisan
As an independent, Seth Bodnar doesn't answer to either the Democratic or Republican parties. Bodnar will fight for what is best for Montanans, not for the parties.
| Total appealing | 70% |
| Total not | 23% |
| Very appealing | 41% |
| Somewhat appealing | 29% |
| Not very appealing | 12% |
| Not at all appealing | 11% |
| DK/REF | 7% |
Bodnar message — Tariffs
Seth Bodnar will fight for common sense trade policy, not tariffs that drive up costs for Montana farmers and destroy export markets.
| Total appealing | 57% |
| Total not | 37% |
| Very appealing | 35% |
| Somewhat appealing | 22% |
| Not very appealing | 22% |
| Not at all appealing | 15% |
| DK/REF | 6% |
Chosen Successor Message
Here is a statement about the U.S. Senate race in Montana. Please tell me if you find the information to be very concerning, somewhat concerning, not very concerning, or not at all concerning.
In the final hours before the filing deadline, current Republican Senator Steve Daines abruptly stepped aside and cleared the field for Kurt Alme to run as the lone Republican candidate. To many voters, it feels less like a real choice and more like a decision made behind closed doors, where party insiders in D.C. chose Daines' successor and denied Montanans the chance to have a real say in who represents them.
| Total concerning | 79% |
| Total not | 18% |
| Very concerning | 61% |
| Somewhat concerning | 18% |
| Not very concerning | 8% |
| Not at all concerning | 11% |
| DK/REF | 3% |
Final Vote
One last time, if the election for U.S. Senate were held today and the candidates were Independent Seth Bodnar and Republican Kurt Alme, for whom would you vote?
| Seth Bodnar | 49% |
| Kurt Alme | 44% |
| Independent Seth Bodnar | 40% |
| Undecided, but lean towards Independent Seth Bodnar | 9% |
| Republican Kurt Alme | 35% |
| Undecided, but lean towards Republican Kurt Alme | 9% |
| DK/REF | 7% |